10 most recession-proof cities

Salt Lake City tops our list

Updated September 21, 2023

Reviewed By Ross Martin

Table of contents:

Cities 1 - 3
Cities 4 - 6
Cities 7 - 10
Methodology

Economic uncertainty is something the world has navigated for the last few years. Many researchers and economists have been waiting to declare a recession, which signals a prolonged period of economic decline.

And while these recession predictions have yet to come true, some cities are better poised to handle a downturn in the economy than others.

The Zebra set out to find the best cities for riding out a recession by analyzing the 50 most populous cities in the U.S. using four data points:

Unemployment: Strength in jobs is a good indicator that a recession would be less painful in a specific area. The total unemployment rate for the country is 3.8%.
Cost of living: The cost of living index indicates how expensive it is to live in a city. The baseline used in 100, which is the score given to New York City. Cities are then scored higher or lower depending on local costs.
GDP growth: In the second quarter of 2023, the overall U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.4%. Some areas have contributed to that growth more than others.
Confidence in housing security: Housing insecurity is an important factor to measure. We looked at the percent of city residents who either recently missed a housing payment or had low confidence that they can pay next month's rent on time. For comparison, this number is 26.5% for the U.S. as a whole.

Here are the top 10 cities for navigating a recession thanks to strong jobs, economic growth, lower living expenses and housing security.

#1: Salt Lake City, Utah

Salt Lake City takes our top spot with an exceptionally low unemployment rate that is more than 1% lower than the national average. On top of that, the cost of living is significantly lower than the baseline of New York City, with an index score of just 71.2. The GDP is also 0.4% higher than the U.S. as a whole. And the majority of people living in Salt Lake City don't seem to be facing financial hardship; only 14.4% have low confidence about their upcoming housing security.

Salt Lake City by the numbers

Unemployment rate: 2.7%
Cost of living score: 71.2
GDP growth rate: 2.8%
Low confidence in housing security: 14.4%

#2: Richmond, Virginia

Richmond, Virginia is another city with an exceptionally low unemployment rate. On top of that, it has the fourth lowest cost of living out of all the cities we surveyed, costing more than 30% less than New York City. GDP growth isn't booming in Richmond, but it's still experiencing a steady economy with just over 21% of residents feeling concern over their upcoming housing payments.

Richmond by the numbers

Unemployment rate: 2.8%
Cost of living score: 68.2
GDP growth rate: 0.6%
Low confidence in housing security: 21.3%

#3: Denver, Colorado

Denver stands out with a GDP growth rate that is more than double that of the U.S. in its entirety, standing at 6%. Housing security is quite high compared to other cities, with just 20% experiencing low confidence. That's still well below the national average of 26.5%. Unemployment is just below the rest of the country, at 3.4%. Denver's cost of living index is fairly average compared to the other areas we surveyed.

Denver by the numbers

Unemployment rate: 3.4%
Cost of living score: 79.8
GDP growth rate: 6%
Low confidence in housing security: 20%

#4: Kansas City, Missouri (tied)

Kansas City ties for fourth place thanks to a low cost of living, 30 points beneath New York. There's also strong housing security in the city; only about 20% of people are concerned about their future rent or mortgage payments. GDP growth isn't surging in Kansas City and at 0.5%, paces well below the national average. However, the unemployment rate is 0.4% lower than the country as a whole.

Kansas City by the numbers

Unemployment rate: 3.2%
Cost of living score: 70.3
GDP growth rate: 0.5%
Low confidence in housing security: 19.9%

#4: Raleigh, North Carolina (tied)

Also in fourth place is Raleigh, which is one of the top cities for GDP growth. Unemployment is a fraction below the national average, while cost of living is fairly average compared to other cities on our list. Confidence in housing security is slightly lower in Raleigh, creeping up to 23% of residents who aren't sure if they can meet their next housing payment.

Raleigh by the numbers

Unemployment rate: 3.2%
Cost of living score: 80.3
GDP growth rate: 3.4%
Low confidence in housing security: 23%

#6: Minneapolis, Minnesota

Minneapolis is another city where a steady economy seems to be paying off. While its GDP growth rate is just 1.1%, unemployment is low at 3.1%. On top of that, it's nearly 23% cheaper to live in Minneapolis than New York. Residents also have some of the strongest confidence in housing security in the entire country, with just 18.5% expressing low confidence.

Minneapolis by the numbers

Unemployment rate: 3.1%
Cost of living score: 77.4
GDP growth rate: 1.1%
Low confidence in housing security: 18.5%

#7: Baltimore, Maryland (tied)

Baltimore has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country (and the lowest on our list), at just 1.7%. Despite this however, housing confidence is lower than in many other areas, with 26% of the population unsure of how financially secure they are in their homes. GDP growth is lower than average at just 0.9%. But the cost of living is also low at nearly 30% less than the Big Apple.

Baltimore by the numbers

Unemployment rate: 1.7%
Cost of living score: 72.3
GDP growth rate: 0.9%
Low confidence in housing security: 26%

#7: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (tied)

Tied for seventh place is Pittsburgh, largely thanks to a low unemployment rate of just 3%. Low housing confidence brushes just above 20%, which is still in the top 10 for strong confidence in the cities we analyzed. At 781, the cost of living index is a little higher than many others on our list. And GDP growth is average at 1.2%.

Pittsburgh by the numbers

Unemployment rate: 3%
Cost of living score: 78.1
GDP growth rate: 1.2%
Low confidence in housing security: 20.6%

#9: Charlotte, North Carolina

Charlotte's unemployment rate is slightly lower than the national average, coming in at 3.4%. The GDP growth rate has been accelerating at 2.5%. However, the cost of living index is 81.1, which is higher than many other cities on our list, especially for a Southern city. 23% of residents have low housing confidence about whether or not they'll be able to meet their next mortgage or rent payment.

Charlotte by the numbers

Unemployment rate: 3.4%
Cost of living score: 81.1
GDP growth rate: 2.5%
Low confidence in housing security: 23%

#10: Boston, Massachusetts

Despite being the last on our list, Boston stands out with an exceptionally low unemployment rate of just 2.7%. Housing confidence is also one of the highest in the nation, with only 17.1% of citizens feeling financially insecure about their homes. However, the city's GDP growth rate is mild at just 1.3%. And the cost of living is quite high, with an index score of just over 90.

Boston by the numbers

Unemployment rate: 2.7%
Cost of living score: 90.2
GDP growth rate: 1.3%
Low confidence in housing security: 17.1%

Methodology

The Zebra pulled four data points to analyze the top 50 MSAs (by population) in the U.S. related to the strength of local economies:

Unemployment rate^[1]
Cost of living score^[2]
GDP growth rate^[3]
Confidence in housing security^[4]

MSA data was used where applicable, and we sometimes substituted city or state data as necessary.

Sources